Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf39d…aa9d
sports · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$102 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open −$109
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage377d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 5 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Doosan Bears 35¢ 13¢ $33 $12 −$21 (-63%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 11¢ 4¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-68%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 24¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Oliveira 23¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 23¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 22¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 7¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 −$63 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$66 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 +$113 +344%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $96 +$97 +101%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 28 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 28 $68 −$10 -15%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 02 $394 +$23 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$110
politics 39% +$23
other 10% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 35¢ $27 1h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 34¢ $6 1h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 11¢ $31 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $64 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $65 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 6¢ $13 7h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 7¢ $1 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $13 7h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $68 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $145 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $33 22h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $193 22h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $32 28h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $64 29h
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira BUY Oliveira 23¢ $58 349d
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $58 349d
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $68 350d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 5¢ $142 376d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 5¢ $154 376d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 5¢ $274 376d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 4¢ $172 377d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 5¢ $68 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.4% -2.8% 33% 33% +7.2%
≤30d 6 +7.4% -2.8% 33% 33% +7.2%
≤90d 6 +7.4% -2.8% 33% 33% +7.2%
all 9 -7.2% -16.0% 33% 22% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 22% -8.7%
10% -24.0% 22% -17.4%
15% -31.4% 22% -25.4%
20% -38.1% 22% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.73 · official $80.73 (match) · 25 history records