Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf394…ad79 crypto 11 markets active 4h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,590 (+8%) realized +$2,965 · open −$375
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$3,064per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$760
14 days−$760
30 days+$1,619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,849
world 5% −$605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 17% -13.5%
≤30d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 50% -5.0%
all 10 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 50% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 50% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 10% -14.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -22.4%
20% -35.4% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$519 vs −$670 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,014
Realized+$2,965
Unrealized−$375
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3,064
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,388 $1,014 −$375 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 25 $2,309 −$442 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 25 $3,367 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $5,862 +$1,236 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 24 $4,794 −$862 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 22 $171 +$14 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $708 −$708 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1,328 +$416 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $2,019 +$434 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,766 +$1,426 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $901 +$103 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $408 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,082 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $795 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $51 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $954 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $238 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $105 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $43 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.73 · official $1,013.73 (match) · 156 history records