Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf393…9b65 sports 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$15,877 (-7%) realized −$31,476 · open −$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%98W / 226L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$888per market
Trades / day78.2pace
Fees−$1,809est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$902
7 days−$8,638
14 days−$13,061
30 days−$27,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$25,932
other 6% +$8,209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -33.7% -40.0% 17% 13% -21.0%
≤30d 236 -33.3% -39.6% 24% 17% -27.5%
≤90d 324 -23.8% -31.0% 30% 20% -24.5%
all 324 -23.8% -31.0% 30% 20% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 20% -24.5%
10% -37.6% 15% -31.7%
15% ← realistic here -43.7% 11% -38.3%
20% -49.2% 9% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$591) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$378 vs −$303 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$5,990
Realized−$31,476
Unrealized−$190
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses98 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,809
Open positions3
Markets (closed)324 / 240
History coverage42d
Avg bet$888
Trades / day78.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $2,168 $5,663 +$3,495 (+161%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 95¢ 100¢ $311 $326 +$15 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 62¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? No 23¢ 0¢ $960 $0 −$960 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs Fnatic 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 26¢ 0¢ $395 $0 −$395 (-100%)
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Team Yandex 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI HANJIN BRION 7¢ 0¢ $183 $0 −$183 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Weibo Gaming 18¢ 0¢ $479 $0 −$479 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs MOUZ 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana LNG Esports 51¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 Top Esports 58¢ 0¢ $1,749 $0 −$1,749 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B REKONIX 8¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $479 −$478 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Jun 14 $1,749 −$1,749 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Jun 14 $178 −$178 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $268 −$269 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 14 $1,288 −$1,288 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Pla Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +1359%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $2,338 −$2,388 -102%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $275 −$277 -101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 14 $0 $0 +13290%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-26? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 14 $133 −$133 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 14 $288 −$288 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 57m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 57m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $63 57m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $81 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $47 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,989.62 · official $5,989.62 (match) · 3500 history records