Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf391…324a politics 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$14
politics 34% −$13
sports 12% +$57
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 138 +2.6% -7.2% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 7% -9.4%
10% -16.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×12.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage134d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $440 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $167 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $359 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $222 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $141 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $357 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 7h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 7h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 43h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 43h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 24d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 27d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $185 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $185 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 29d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 31d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 32d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 32d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 32d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $225 34d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $225 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records