Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf38d…73a3 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-7%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$142
14 days−$52
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$152
crypto 26% −$66
sports 22% +$206
tech 16% +$17
other 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 25% -23.4%
≤30d 45 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 29% -8.0%
≤90d 45 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 29% -8.0%
all 45 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 29% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 29% -8.0%
10% -33.2% 24% -16.8%
15% -39.7% 20% -24.8%
20% -45.6% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage25d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 13¢ 13¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $16 +$5 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$25 +82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $114 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $31 −$9 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $26 −$22 -86%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $283 +$90 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $260 +$23 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $4 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $84 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 31 $81 +$2 +2%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 31 $20 +$89 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $111 +$7 +6%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 21 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $103 −$21 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $32 6h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $2 39h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 2¢ $1 39h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 2¢ $1 39h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 45h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 80¢ $22 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $16 47h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 80¢ $30 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 87¢ $50 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 91¢ $56 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 49¢ $30 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $70 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $65 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $200 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $100 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 97¢ $110 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 89¢ $117 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 57¢ $117 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 24¢ $22 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL No 1¢ $2 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No 1¢ $4 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 32¢ $31 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 88¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.30 · official $39.31 (match) · 122 history records