Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf38c…d9f2 sports 1376 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,050 (-10%) realized −$6,050 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%675W / 700L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$565est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days−$130
14 days−$394
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$3,552
other 16% −$771
world 0% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -7.9% -16.6% 54% 54% -16.0%
≤30d 243 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 51% -11.6%
≤90d 862 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 48% -13.4%
all 1375 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 47% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 47% -15.8%
10% -24.1% 45% -23.9%
15% -31.4% 41% -31.3%
20% -38.1% 33% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$35 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,050
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses675 / 700
Est. fees paid−$565
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1375 / 1376
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1375 Trades
no open positions (162 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $62 +$14 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$20 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 −$28 -40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $41 +$6 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $31 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $28 +$13 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 +$37 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $43 +$18 +41%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $33 +$10 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $28 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$26 +82%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $60 +$43 +71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $54 +$36 +66%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $22 −$12 -56%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026 Jun 18 $34 +$51 +152%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$18 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $88 −$87 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 +$68 +120%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$11 -61%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $14 +$14 +101%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $33 +$17 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $94 +$51 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$36 +72%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $55 +$39 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $70 +$35 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $74 +$46 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$21 +41%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $92 −$91 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$24 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$12 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $76 1h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 81¢ $62 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $42 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $70 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U BUY 44¢ $45 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $47 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $41 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $31 21h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL REKONIX 100¢ $41 24h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 67¢ $28 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $41 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $61 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $43 38h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $43 39h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $33 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $33 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $28 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $57 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $31 45h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SELL K27 100¢ $70 45h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SELL K27 73¢ $33 46h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY K27 50¢ $30 47h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY K27 55¢ $30 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 83¢ $90 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $54 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 41¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 29¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records