Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf383…1197 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$54 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$87
world 9% +$30
sports 6% −$32
crypto 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -23.9% -31.2% 31% 31% -4.8%
≤30d 16 -23.9% -31.2% 31% 31% -4.8%
≤90d 18 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 33% -6.0%
all 29 -23.6% -30.9% 31% 31% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 31% -4.3%
10% -37.5% 31% -13.5%
15% -43.5% 28% -21.8%
20% -49.1% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$15 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage179d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $278 +$127 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $217 +$104 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$27 -83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +149%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +365%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$2 +97%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $19 +$83 +430%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $2 +$1 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $21 −$21 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $15 +$6 +40%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $166 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $278 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $217 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 3d
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 38d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Tatsuro Taira 45¢ $4 38d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 22¢ $2 38d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $102 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.09 · official $166.09 (match) · 50 history records