Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf382…be0e other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,421 (+16%) realized +$1,415 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 122L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$110
14 days−$21
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$240
tech 19% −$42
finance 15% −$136
sports 15% +$1,767
politics 9% +$63
world 3% −$93
weather 1% −$2
culture 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -34.8% -41.0% 18% 0% -24.3%
≤30d 39 +36.2% +23.2% 31% 21% -8.7%
≤90d 148 +15.3% +4.3% 18% 9% +6.2%
all 148 +15.3% +4.3% 18% 9% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 9% +6.2%
10% -5.6% 6% -3.9%
15% -14.8% 5% -13.2%
20% -23.1% 4% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$10 · ×8.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized+$1,415
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 122
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions11
Markets (closed)148 / 159
History coverage87d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $95 $183 +$88 (+92%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 22¢ $51 $77 +$27 (+52%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Yes 44¢ 25¢ $131 $75 −$56 (-43%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 63¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 37¢ 24¢ $87 $55 −$31 (-36%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 53¢ 80¢ $27 $40 +$14 (+51%)
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 14¢ $57 $33 −$24 (-42%)
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? No 56¢ 55¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No 55¢ 19¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? Yes 15¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $122 −$21 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $63 −$9 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 18 $162 −$1 -0%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 18 $79 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$7 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$25 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$24 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $376 +$5 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $180 −$32 -18%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $108 −$5 -5%
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Jun 08 $77 −$32 -42%
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her Jun 08 $149 −$21 -14%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $57 +$8 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $100 +$186 +186%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $65 −$62 -96%
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30? May 29 $50 −$33 -66%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 28 $6 +$5 +75%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $121 −$120 -100%
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and H May 23 $123 +$57 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $223 −$3 -1%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 23 $87 +$22 +25%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth May 22 $140 +$58 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $155 +$24 +15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $51 +$99 +194%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $96 −$95 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 18 $60 −$7 -12%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $91 −$67 -74%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 17 $86 −$7 -8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 17 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? May 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 16 $15 $0 -3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? May 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $84 −$84 -100%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rylee George win Breakaway Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Cham May 16 $86 −$5 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $15 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 6h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 8h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? SELL Yes $3 10h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL No 57¢ $92 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 66¢ $26 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 66¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 66¢ $5 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 66¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes $5 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes $6 14h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 66¢ $33 14h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 14h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY No 56¢ $56 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.19 · official $550.24 (match) · 978 history records