Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf381…40c2
weather · 110 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,087 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$650 · open −$438
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,506
Realized−$650
Unrealized−$438
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses33 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions21
Markets (closed)89 / 110
History coverage171d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 21 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$840
7 days+$525
14 days+$4,066
30 days+$3,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $3,000 $2,676 −$324 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2,000 $1,991 −$9 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,800 $1,768 −$32 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,500 $1,491 −$9 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,500 $1,486 −$14 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,200 $1,265 +$65 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,300 $1,264 −$36 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $300 $1,071 +$771 (+257%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $861 $907 +$46 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $675 −$25 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $671 −$29 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $400 $392 −$8 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $400 $388 −$12 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $240 −$10 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $734 $1 −$733 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 21? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Kings Rockets 8¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 28? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $407 +$644 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $192 −$188 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $239 +$356 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $544 +$261 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3,271 +$589 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $145 +$96 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $334 −$334 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 09 $298 +$673 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $703 −$703 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $15 +$9 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $749 +$405 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $800 −$695 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $63 −$61 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $142 −$142 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $407 −$407 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 06 $247 +$255 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 05 $2,565 +$1,792 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 04 $566 −$564 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $688 −$676 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $659 +$423 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 03 $315 −$308 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 03 $640 +$468 +73%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $451 −$167 -37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1,018 +$895 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $378 −$372 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $698 +$702 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 01 $400 −$396 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 01 $651 +$381 +58%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 May 31 $335 −$333 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $817 +$1,847 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 29 $153 −$152 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 28 $320 −$308 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 28 $277 +$718 +259%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 27 $712 −$701 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 27 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 26 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $26 +$46 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 26 $75 +$184 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 25 $245 −$242 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 25 $31 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$695
weather 37% +$918
crypto 9% −$3,936
sports 7% +$2,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $257 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $445 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $276 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $309 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $721 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,338 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,234 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,543 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,541 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,849 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,054 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $744 16h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,052 16h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $192 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $407 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $594 20h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $879 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $3,044 38h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 53% -4.1%
≤30d 76 -10.5% -19.0% 39% 39% +0.4%
≤90d 77 -11.6% -20.0% 39% 39% +0.3%
all 89 -16.3% -24.3% 37% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 37% -10.1%
10% -31.5% 36% -18.7%
15% -38.1% 35% -26.5%
20% -44.2% 34% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,506.24 · official $18,528.89 (match) · 1854 history records