Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf381…8d0d crypto 644 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized +$45 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%282W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$694
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$237
sports 31% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -82.0% -83.7% 7% 7% -10.3%
≤30d 78 -37.7% -43.7% 22% 22% -9.5%
≤90d 643 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 43% -10.0%
all 643 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 43% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 40% -18.6%
15% -29.7% 38% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 36% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses282 / 361
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)643 / 644
History coverage65d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 22¢ $875 $820 −$55 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $305 +$441 +144%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$253 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $210 +$306 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $588 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $307 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $747 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 34¢ $51 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 37¢ $51 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 43¢ $203 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $203 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $303 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $304 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $516 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $210 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.08 · official $892.97 · 2053 history records