Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf380…5858 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,549 (+24%) realized +$1,763 · open −$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,951
sports 12% −$21
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +33.0%
≤30d 4 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +33.0%
≤90d 4 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +33.0%
all 4 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.5% 100% +33.0%
10% +19.8% 100% +20.3%
15% +8.2% 75% +8.7%
20% -2.4% 75% -2.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$536 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,040
Realized+$1,763
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage20d
Avg bet$728
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $980 $787 −$193 (-20%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 52¢ 48¢ $271 $253 −$18 (-7%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,011 +$519 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,823 +$1,023 +56%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,106 +$266 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $620 +$336 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $269 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,530 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 46¢ $3 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 54¢ $3 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 54¢ $3 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $3 7h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 1¢ $3 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 5¢ $51 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $553 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $264 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $124 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $504 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $104 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $53 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $25 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $100 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $93 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $64 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $31 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $19 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $507 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $296 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,823 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $132 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $752 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $956 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,039.87 · official $1,045.07 (match) · 57 history records