Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf380…17bb crypto 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,215 (-27%) realized −$2,205 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%92W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$839
30 days−$1,030
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$1,411
crypto 44% −$972
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -27.9% -34.8% 35% 35% -19.5%
≤30d 220 -21.1% -28.6% 32% 30% -35.7%
≤90d 276 -22.3% -29.7% 33% 31% -36.6%
all 276 -22.3% -29.7% 33% 31% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 31% -36.6%
10% -36.5% 29% -42.7%
15% -42.6% 26% -48.2%
20% -48.2% 23% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$24 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,205
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses92 / 184
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)276 / 277
History coverage73d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner ECHO 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $122 +$54 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$28 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +84%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$31 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$25 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $71 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$43 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $169 −$163 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $142 −$141 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $134 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $252 −$248 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $387 −$374 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 01 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 01 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$8 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 81¢ $177 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $39 57m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 55¢ $122 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 35¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 553 history records