Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf37d…a88b sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$664 (+24%) realized +$663 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%30W / 23L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$419
14 days+$416
30 days+$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$421
other 34% +$204
crypto 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 56% +30.7%
≤30d 53 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 53% +12.8%
≤90d 53 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 53% +12.8%
all 53 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 53% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 53% +12.8%
10% -26.9% 45% +2.0%
15% -34.0% 32% -7.9%
20% -40.5% 28% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$18 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$663
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)53 / 63
History coverage26d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Over 57¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 52¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Over 52¢ 42¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 60¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots Yes 57¢ 48¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots Yes 35¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$12 +59%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$23 -91%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots Jun 15 $20 +$13 +66%
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $19 +$21 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots Jun 14 $23 −$22 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $50 +$31 +63%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $460 +$482 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$3 +19%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $30 +$35 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $24 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $12 +$12 +99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $8 +$5 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nort Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$5 +75%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $9 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $6 +$6 +97%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $17 −$17 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $9 +$8 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Al Nassr Saudi Club leading at halftime? May 21 $625 +$286 +46%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser May 21 $581 +$39 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 21 $28 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 May 21 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship G May 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $14 57m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $20 1h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $14 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $29 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 6¢ $2 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $12 4h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $20 6h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 68¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $32 37h
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $20 47h
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots BUY Yes 51¢ $20 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $39 2d
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $23 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $19 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $81 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $50 2d
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $134 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $942 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $460 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.83 · official $83.54 (match) · 132 history records