Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf37c…3c74 sports 688 markets active 0h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,740 (-14%) realized −$7,600 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%233W / 452L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$7,943
crypto 17% −$1,637
other 3% +$709
world 0% +$178
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +128.9% +107.1% 47% 47% -6.2%
≤30d 17 +128.9% +107.1% 47% 47% -6.2%
≤90d 58 +37.5% +24.4% 40% 40% -14.1%
all 685 -7.4% -16.2% 34% 33% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 33% -24.0%
10% -24.3% 32% -31.3%
15% -31.6% 31% -37.9%
20% -38.3% 29% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$68 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$7,600
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses233 / 452
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)685 / 688
History coverage213d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 28¢ 12¢ $90 $41 −$49 (-55%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner Inner Circle Academy 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner SAW 54¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 337 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $182 −$106 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $158 +$110 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $138 −$18 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $131 +$97 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$36 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $219 +$165 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$64 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $224 +$178 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $82 +$135 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $104 +$145 +139%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 15 $45 −$38 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 15 $20 +$29 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 15 $6 +$13 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 15 $81 −$76 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 10 $96 −$92 -96%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $49 +$122 +249%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $99 −$98 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $46 −$45 -98%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 10 $51 +$40 +79%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 May 10 $61 +$44 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 09 $68 +$119 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 09 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 09 $75 −$72 -97%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 09 $26 +$72 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 09 $48 +$106 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 09 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 09 $44 +$49 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 01 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 01 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 01 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 23 $24 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 11 $86 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 11 $60 +$87 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 11 $140 −$134 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 11 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 11 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 11 $80 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 11 $80 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 11 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 11 $85 +$74 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $94 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $116 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $64 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $66 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $38 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $250 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $120 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $121 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $138 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 19m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner BUY SAW 54¢ $93 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $180 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Academy 92¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Academy 97¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $48 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $221 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.00 · official $168.20 · 1222 history records