Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf37a…daa8 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$186 (+1%) realized +$175 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%71W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$46
14 days+$125
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$188
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 64 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -8.7%
all 72 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×2602.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×184801.19 per $1 lost it wins $184801.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,159
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses71 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage99d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,143 $1,154 +$11 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,133 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,124 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,118 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,110 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,103 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,044 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,091 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,085 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,075 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,064 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,033 +$30 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,030 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,011 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $997 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 17? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,133 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,118 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,110 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $188 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $188 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $188 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $465 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $599 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $220 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $220 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,098 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $569 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $522 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,085 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1,035 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $1,064 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,033 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $350 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $71 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $71 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $71 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,159.06 · official $1,158.48 (match) · 166 history records