Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf37a…c6c2 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$1
other 28% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage100d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $82 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $166 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $83 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 14h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $81 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $81 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $82 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $82 35d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 37d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 38d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $82 44d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $82 44d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $82 48d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $82 49d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $83 68d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $83 69d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $83 69d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $83 70d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 72d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 72d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $83 73d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $83 74d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $83 75d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $83 76d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $83 81d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $83 82d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $83 82d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $84 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records