trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 19% | 6% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 19% | 6% | -9.6% |
| all | 29 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 34% | 3% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 3% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 3% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 3% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 3% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 20 | $37 | $0 | -1% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 20 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $14 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 18 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $12 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | May 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $44 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $4 | +$4 | +94% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 17 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 27 | $2 | −$1 | -38% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? | Apr 27 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 26 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 26 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US military action against Iran before April? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | -0% |