Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf37a…6574
other · 98 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$15 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses27 / 69
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage456d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $333 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $34 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $88 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $87 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $371 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $208 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $96 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $256 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $276 −$5 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $84 +$4 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $195 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $86 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $123 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $8 −$2 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $90 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $90 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $83 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $99 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $257 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $19 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $85 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $599 −$3 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $653 +$6 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $592 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 10 $7 $0 -0%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 09 $145 −$5 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $13 −$3 -24%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $8 −$3 -36%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 06 $53 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 10 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$3
other 28% +$1
sports 22% −$5
politics 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $48 56m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $46 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $9 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $55 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $22 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $62 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $84 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $24 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $34 29h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $86 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $57 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $78 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $87 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $31 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 31 -2.1% -11.4% 16% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 42 -4.0% -13.1% 26% 0% -9.5%
all 96 +1.2% -8.4% 28% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.88 · official $48.41 (match) · 369 history records