Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf37a…ca96 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$15 (+6%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate89%51W / 6L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 33% +6.3%
≤30d 3 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 33% +6.3%
≤90d 57 +3.9% -6.0% 89% 32% -4.2%
all 57 +3.9% -6.0% 89% 32% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 32% -4.2%
10% -15.0% 19% -13.4%
15% -23.2% 12% -21.8%
20% -30.7% 4% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses51 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage60d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 28 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 28 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 28 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 28 $6 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 28 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 28 $4 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 22 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 22 $4 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 22 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 22 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 21 $4 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 21 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 21 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 21 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 21 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 21 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 21 $8 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 21 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 20 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 20 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 19 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6AM ET Apr 19 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 19 $4 +$2 +42%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET Apr 17 $2 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 47d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 47d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 47d
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 47d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 53d
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 53d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 53d
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 53d
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 54d
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 54d
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 54d
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.74 · official $16.74 (match) · 114 history records