Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf377…7145 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+26%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 14% +2.3%
≤30d 7 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 14% +2.3%
≤90d 7 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 14% +2.3%
all 7 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 14% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 14% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 14% -7.5%
15% -32.2% 14% -16.5%
20% -38.9% 14% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$33 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $131 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records