Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf376…e767 crypto 774 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+0%) realized +$242 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%720W / 42L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$29
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$124
weather 31% +$65
other 1% −$15
finance 0% −$10
sports 0% +$2
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$50
culture 0% +$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 175 -3.2% -12.4% 91% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 445 -2.1% -11.4% 93% 1% -9.4%
all 762 -1.1% -10.6% 94% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.84 per $1 lost it wins $4.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$907
Realized+$242
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses720 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)762 / 774
History coverage252d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $565 $566 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 99¢ $112 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+99%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 91¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31? No 76¢ 74¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-38%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$50 (-99%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $406 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $177 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $711 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $282 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $774 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $834 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $349 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $952 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $165 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? Jun 08 $0 $0 -4%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $11 54m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $101 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 55m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $111 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $296 57m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $11 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $11 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $398 24h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 33h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 40h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 40h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? SELL No 93¢ $15 40h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 43h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 43h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 43h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? BUY No 87¢ $7 46h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? BUY No 87¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $71 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $301 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $285 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $74 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.89 · official $906.89 (match) · 2089 history records