Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf376…b135 sports 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 57L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$148
other 22% −$13
world 8% +$88
politics 5% −$10
crypto 2% +$13
weather 0% −$1
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.1% -2.2% 20% 20% +20.4%
≤30d 6 +3.6% -6.2% 17% 17% +12.7%
≤90d 35 +5.8% -4.2% 11% 6% -11.2%
all 85 +12.1% +1.4% 33% 16% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 16% -9.9%
10% -8.3% 14% -18.5%
15% -17.2% 12% -26.4%
20% -25.3% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 89
History coverage545d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+106%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-16%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 22 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $31 $0 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $28 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $126 +$74 +59%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $42 −$8 -19%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $123 −$122 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $40 −$6 -15%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 12 $164 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 12 $333 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 12 $483 −$2 -0%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 12 $160 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 12 $830 −$10 -1%
Pistons vs. Pacers Apr 12 $130 $0 +0%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 11 $280 −$10 -4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 11 $355 $0 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 11 $390 $0 +0%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Apr 11 $0 +$1 +525%
Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $510 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 9? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $286 −$2 -1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $220 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 09 $235 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $200 +$5 +2%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 09 $280 −$10 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K before July 14? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5 Apr 06 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6? Apr 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 6? Apr 06 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6? Apr 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 12 $154 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $56 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 11 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $276 $0 +0%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 02 $20 +$3 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 23 $47 +$16 +34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4? Feb 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 09 $6 +$3 +54%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 09 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 09 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 31 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 36¢ $18 15m
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 37¢ $18 20m
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? SELL No 20¢ $10 51m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 62¢ $31 52m
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 21¢ $10 52m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 62¢ $31 54m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 55¢ $27 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 40d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 40d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 40d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 40d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $126 40d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL No 17¢ $34 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 20¢ $40 70d
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha SELL Paper Rex 73¢ $26 71d
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $26 71d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Houston Astros 44¢ $29 71d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $29 71d
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Chicago White Sox 36¢ $333 71d
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $219 71d
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $81 71d
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $34 71d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 55¢ $135 71d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $135 71d
Hawks vs. Heat SELL Hawks 41¢ $126 71d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Hawks 42¢ $128 71d
Magic vs. Celtics SELL Celtics 16¢ $160 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.76 · official $104.76 (match) · 272 history records