Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf375…98d0 weather 636 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (431 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,297 (+4%) realized +$1,292 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%607W / 6L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day430.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$204
14 days+$455
30 days+$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$483
other 0% −$12
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (431 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 554 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 613 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -8.3%
≤90d 613 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -8.3%
all 613 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover430.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 1% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 1% -17.0%
15% -24.6% 1% -25.1%
20% -32.0% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$55 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$876
Realized+$1,292
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses607 / 6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)613 / 636
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day430.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $187 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $231 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 19? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 0m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.41 · official $876.37 (match) · 3500 history records