Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf375…f105 other 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$114 (-0%) realized +$103 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%115W / 102L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,255
7 days−$4,755
14 days−$2,875
30 days−$4,745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$7,238
crypto 7% +$869
world 6% +$3,969
sports 4% +$1,856
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -42.0% -47.5% 29% 24% -46.1%
≤30d 64 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 45% -17.3%
≤90d 186 -12.4% -20.7% 52% 49% -10.0%
all 217 -9.0% -17.7% 53% 50% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% -9.8%
10% -25.6% 46% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 39% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 29% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$374 vs −$424 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses115 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)217 / 219
History coverage102d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 77¢ 56¢ $800 $587 −$213 (-27%)
Will the next elected US president be a woman? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$741 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,013 −$999 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,024 −$999 -98%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,008 −$999 -99%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,010 −$999 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,002 +$96 +10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1,006 −$999 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,012 −$999 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$999 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$94 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,021 +$2,821 +276%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 −$999 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,008 +$419 +42%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $306 −$299 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $304 −$299 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,013 −$999 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $204 +$381 +187%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,008 +$440 +44%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,015 −$999 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $504 +$197 +39%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $511 +$1,628 +318%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5,030 +$1,220 +24%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,019 +$2,008 +197%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,008 +$419 +42%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $502 +$93 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $773 −$758 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,010 +$428 +21%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,020 −$999 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,012 −$999 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1,008 +$419 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $1,002 +$108 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $505 −$499 -99%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,012 −$999 -99%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,003 +$171 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,004 +$214 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,009 +$504 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,011 +$649 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,003 +$133 +13%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,011 +$683 +68%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,018 −$999 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1,009 +$504 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $806 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,012 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,013 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,024 37h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,008 37h
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,010 37h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,006 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,002 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,012 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,010 4d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,016 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $100 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $100 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $51 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,021 6d
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 26¢ $306 8d
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $304 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,013 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,008 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,008 9d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 9d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,015 9d
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 10d
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 23¢ $511 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 80¢ $5,030 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $773 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,019 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.01 · official $598.12 (match) · 430 history records