Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf374…71d8 crypto 83 markets active 3d ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate85%70W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$12
other 30% −$6
weather 6% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$21
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.8% -32.0% 75% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -17.9% -25.8% 82% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 27 -10.9% -19.4% 89% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -13.8% -22.0% 85% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 2% -10.6%
10% -29.5% 1% -19.2%
15% -36.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -42.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses70 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage252d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4? May 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25? May 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on April 18? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on Apri Apr 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? Apr 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 on March 20? Mar 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 20 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? Mar 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 11? Mar 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 February 23-March 1? Mar 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 8? Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 07 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Deacoy (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Feb 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January? Feb 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 18? Jan 29 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? Jan 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 11 Jan 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 1? Jan 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 29? Jan 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on December 29? Jan 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 30? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 24? Dec 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 19? Dec 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 18? Dec 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 18? Dec 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 19? Dec 23 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 22d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 24d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $80 44d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $80 56d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $38 60d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap BUY Yes 0¢ $1 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $41 60d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on Apri BUY No 100¢ $81 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $81 71d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $81 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $81 78d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 85d
Will XRP reach $1.70 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $79 89d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $81 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 153 history records