trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 13 | $159 | +$24 | +15% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$2 | -44% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$2 | -15% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $8 | −$2 | -29% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $13 | −$1 | -11% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$1 | -17% |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 08 | $182 | +$45 | +25% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $42 | +$4 | +10% |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 04 | $2 | −$1 | -62% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $58 | +$13 | +23% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 31 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 30 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | May 30 | $28 | +$2 | +9% |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? | May 19 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | May 19 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | May 18 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? | May 18 | $8 | −$8 | -99% |
| Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? | May 18 | $11 | +$7 | +71% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -8.3% | -17.0% | 30% | 20% | +3.5% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -14.7% | -22.8% | 45% | 25% | +0.3% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -14.7% | -22.8% | 45% | 25% | +0.3% |
| all | 20 | -14.7% | -22.8% | 45% | 25% | +0.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.8% | 25% | +0.3% |
| 10% | -30.2% | 20% | -9.3% |
| 15% | -37.0% | 10% | -18.1% |
| 20% | -43.1% | 5% | -26.1% |