Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf371…9812
crypto · 820 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$14,070 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,324 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized−$2,324
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses331 / 485
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)816 / 820
History coverage50d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 816 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$422
14 days+$169
30 days−$1,599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 23¢ 62¢ $23 $62 +$40 (+175%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $89 $37 −$53 (-59%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? Yes 65¢ 34¢ $65 $34 −$31 (-48%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $9 $17 +$9 (+95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $90 −$86 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$254 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$55 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$76 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$333 +267%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $477 +$254 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $135 +$130 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$100 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$15 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$80 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$2,484
politics 1% +$218
other 1% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $38 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $60 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3h
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -19.0% -26.7% 31% 30% +0.8%
≤30d 427 -16.1% -24.1% 36% 34% -15.3%
≤90d 816 -11.4% -19.9% 41% 39% -12.4%
all 816 -11.4% -19.9% 41% 39% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 39% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 35% -20.8%
15% -34.5% 32% -28.5%
20% -40.9% 28% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.24 · official $150.31 (match) · 3500 history records