Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf36e…40aa crypto 661 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (261 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14,647 (+201%) realized +$14,647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%356W / 345L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day261.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (261 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 572 +34.6% +21.8% 50% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 701 +33.3% +20.6% 51% 34% -15.7%
≤90d 701 +33.3% +20.6% 51% 34% -15.7%
all 701 +33.3% +20.6% 51% 34% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover261.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 34% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 22% -23.8%
15% -1.5% 17% -31.1%
20% -11.2% 14% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$14,647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses356 / 345
Open positions0
Markets (closed)701 / 661
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day261.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 701 Trades
no open positions (206 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.63 · official $23.14 · 3500 history records