Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf36e…f91c sports 415 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$359 (+0%) realized +$369 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%161W / 253L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$2,517est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,519
7 days−$7,148
14 days−$2,822
30 days−$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$81
other 3% −$669
crypto 1% +$370
finance 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -10.8% -19.3% 26% 26% -39.7%
≤30d 158 +11.2% +0.6% 39% 39% -10.5%
≤90d 414 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% -9.7%
all 414 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 39% -9.7%
10% -13.0% 39% -18.3%
15% -21.4% 39% -26.2%
20% -29.1% 39% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$334 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$369
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses161 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2,517
Open positions1
Markets (closed)414 / 415
History coverage82d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Yes 13¢ 12¢ $133 $123 −$10 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $248 +$407 +164%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $48 −$46 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $942 −$942 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $187 −$182 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $592 −$581 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,324 −$1,309 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $840 −$828 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $589 −$589 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $533 −$522 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $323 −$317 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $558 +$925 +166%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $594 −$582 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $468 −$468 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $336 −$336 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $650 −$650 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $479 +$814 +170%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 14 $147 −$143 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $327 −$320 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $255 +$1,245 +488%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $562 −$559 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $562 −$551 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $692 −$679 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $482 +$1,566 +325%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $437 +$478 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $205 +$952 +465%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $622 −$610 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $428 −$425 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $636 −$624 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $447 −$436 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $778 −$770 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $776 −$765 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $102 +$350 +344%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 10 $132 −$129 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $306 +$694 +226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $420 +$580 +138%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,165 +$1,614 +138%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $203 −$203 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $305 +$334 +109%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $433 +$574 +132%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 08 $161 −$157 -98%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,978 +$2,020 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $137 3m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 92¢ $654 37m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 19¢ $40 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $102 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $207 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $48 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $175 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $22 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $110 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $22 25h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 14¢ $187 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $531 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $6 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $75 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $592 28h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $769 29h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $592 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $16 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $51 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $78 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $91 30h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $111 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $9 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $16 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $148 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $112 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $9 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $4 31h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $180 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.21 · official $123.21 (match) · 1869 history records