Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf36c…49e5 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$841 (+1%) realized +$607 · open +$234
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%60W / 24L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,742per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$3,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$326
7 days+$528
14 days+$401
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$290
sports 12% +$488
tech 6% +$44
world 1% −$29
crypto 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.9% +3.0% 80% 40% -4.4%
≤30d 33 -10.0% -18.5% 67% 36% -10.6%
≤90d 60 -2.7% -12.0% 78% 40% -8.8%
all 84 -11.3% -19.8% 71% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 29% -9.2%
10% -27.5% 8% -17.9%
15% -34.5% 6% -25.9%
20% -40.9% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$99 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$3,434
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses60 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage174d
Avg bet$1,742
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,000 $1,227 +$227 (+23%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,018 +$18 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 −$29 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $102 +$100 +98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,007 +$39 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,001 +$44 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,006 +$194 +19%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,057 +$193 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,004 −$319 -32%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,097 +$93 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,101 +$48 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $123 +$12 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $786 −$679 -86%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 02 $701 +$24 +3%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $701 +$28 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $100 −$28 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $29 +$5 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $101 +$31 +30%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5) May 24 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,004 +$132 +13%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 23 $76 −$74 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 19 $1,005 +$188 +19%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1,001 +$32 +3%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) May 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,001 +$25 +2%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $886 +$9 +1%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $8,000 +$8 +0%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $101 +$32 +31%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $111 +$6 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 09 $3 +$4 +139%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $121 +$19 +16%
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-2.5) May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 88¢ $974 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 84¢ $203 24h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 82¢ $1,046 24h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 78¢ $1,007 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 46h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 96¢ $1,200 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $1,006 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France $51 5d
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $104 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $1,006 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $686 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 41¢ $102 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $92 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $1,005 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,001 7d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 98¢ $2,001 7d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $100 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 8d
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 8d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $134 8d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 91¢ $123 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $145 9d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $1,002 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $101 9d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL South Africa 62¢ $75 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,434.32 · official $3,434.86 (match) · 196 history records