Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf367…f959 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-4%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$61
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$25
other 36% +$44
sports 13% −$26
tech 9% −$16
crypto 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +299.8% +261.7% 100% 100% +261.7%
≤30d 37 -11.8% -20.2% 30% 27% -6.2%
≤90d 37 -11.8% -20.2% 30% 27% -6.2%
all 37 -11.8% -20.2% 30% 27% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 27% -6.2%
10% -27.8% 27% -15.2%
15% -34.8% 19% -23.4%
20% -41.2% 14% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$11 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage19d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $36 +$105 +293%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$19 +42%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$26 +510%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$14 +22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$2 -15%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $4 $0 -11%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$50 +197%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $103 +$27 +26%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $36 −$4 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 −$5 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $154 +$9 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $100 −$16 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $71 −$22 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $27 +$35 +132%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $69 −$31 -45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$7 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $2 8d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $2 8d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 8d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $10 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 25¢ $4 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $5 9d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $22 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 87¢ $22 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $20 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $41 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $9 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $35 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $36 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 10d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 14¢ $4 10d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 34¢ $19 10d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $4 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.89 · official $139.89 (match) · 102 history records