Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf366…15ad other 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,532 (-23%) realized −$6,447 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day142.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$6,436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,495
7 days−$7,595
14 days−$7,595
30 days−$7,471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$6,868
sports 15% +$793
crypto 8% −$368
world 8% −$1,076
tech 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +23.0% +11.2% 35% 33% -40.4%
≤30d 51 +23.7% +11.9% 37% 35% -39.4%
≤90d 51 +23.7% +11.9% 37% 35% -39.4%
all 51 +23.7% +11.9% 37% 35% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.9% 35% -39.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.2% 35% -45.2%
15% -8.6% 33% -50.5%
20% -17.5% 29% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$507) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
30.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$378 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6,436
Realized−$6,447
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions42
Markets (closed)51 / 93
History coverage22d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day142.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 99¢ $999 $1,859 +$860 (+86%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,085 $1,078 −$8 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $923 $949 +$25 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $323 $355 +$31 (+10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $214 $226 +$12 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $217 $216 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $206 $199 −$7 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 84¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 52¢ 42¢ $172 $137 −$35 (-20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $135 $133 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 95¢ 82¢ $102 $88 −$13 (-13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $81 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $93 +$146 +156%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$113 +175%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,069 −$1,006 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$11 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $149 +$274 +184%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $518 −$510 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$42 -88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $997 −$893 -90%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$190 +1570%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,361 −$3,102 -92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $266 +$173 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 +$203 +166%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $269 +$601 +223%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $448 −$169 -38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$118 -89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $729 −$413 -57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,607 +$98 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $60 −$23 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $412 −$410 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,535 −$1,382 -90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1,052 −$1,034 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,548 −$1,548 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$119 +420%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,527 +$376 +25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,440 −$924 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $733 +$385 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$25 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $27 +$40 +146%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $630 +$642 +102%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$5 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $400 +$683 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,173 +$434 +37%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $72 +$61 +85%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $161 +$65 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 26m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 26m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 28m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 32m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 32m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 43m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 59m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 59m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 59m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,435.63 · official $6,435.51 (match) · 3179 history records