Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F3 0xf365…97f4 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+1%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate70%44W / 19L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$203
sports 9% −$3
culture 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
other 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.2% -9.3% 69% 0% -9.3%
all 63 -1.9% -11.2% 70% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.0%
10% -19.7% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.5% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses44 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)63 / 69
History coverage109d
Avg bet$524
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $151 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 12 $399 $0 -0%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 12 $479 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $663 −$1 -0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 11 $2,845 +$58 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 11 $2,799 +$45 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 11 $2,302 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 11 $2,748 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 11 $2,710 +$38 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 11 $2,656 +$54 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 11 $2,630 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 11 $2,604 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 11 $2,552 +$52 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 11 $2,447 +$105 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 11 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 10 $221 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 10 $219 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 10 $200 +$19 +9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 14d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 14d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $22 16d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $22 16d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.91 · official $111.91 (match) · 156 history records