Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf35d…e5ee other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-11%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$3
politics 25% −$35
sports 24% +$21
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.9% -34.8% 43% 43% +2.7%
≤30d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 38% 38% -14.9%
≤90d 17 -61.6% -65.2% 24% 24% -49.2%
all 31 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 42% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 42% -20.0%
10% -36.9% 42% -27.7%
15% -43.0% 39% -34.7%
20% -48.6% 32% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage195d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +46%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will LD Alajuelense win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5 Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Cos Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 20 $5 +$6 +122%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $5 +$4 +79%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $5 +$3 +56%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $5 +$4 +89%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $5 +$5 +108%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-08? Jan 11 $8 +$10 +127%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 25 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 7h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $2 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 23d
Will LD Alajuelense win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 58d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 58d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 58d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 115d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 100¢ $6 116d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 119d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Cos BUY No 25¢ $10 137d
Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential BUY Yes $10 137d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Cos BUY No 33¢ $10 137d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 141d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 56¢ $5 142d
Rams vs. Bears SELL Bears 19¢ $3 149d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 31¢ $5 149d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 64¢ $5 149d
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 150d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 53¢ $5 150d
Bills vs. Jaguars BUY Bills 48¢ $5 156d
Packers vs. Bears BUY Bears 46¢ $10 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records