Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf35b…a2ef crypto 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%261W / 13L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$12
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 51 +0.2% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 124 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
all 274 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.39 per $1 lost it wins $16.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses261 / 13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)274 / 279
History coverage617d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 19, 12AM ET? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 19, 12AM ET? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 June 8-14? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 12? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 25-31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 27? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 19, 12AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 19, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.80 · official $99.81 (match) · 596 history records