Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf35a…1ed5 other 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 209L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$37
sports 23% −$18
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 223 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage127d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $286 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $390 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $367 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $827 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $492 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 6m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 6h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 12h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 13h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 17h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 21h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 22h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 30h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 30h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 32h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 34h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 41h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 43h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 46h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1258 history records