Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf356…b7a2 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$13
other 22% −$1
sports 18% $0
politics 14% −$1
economics 3% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 20 -1.7% -11.0% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 +15.1% +4.2% 29% 6% -9.6%
all 79 +12.4% +1.7% 30% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 8% -10.1%
10% -8.0% 4% -18.7%
15% -16.9% 4% -26.6%
20% -25.1% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage540d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $68 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $163 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $55 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $102 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $24 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $20 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $77 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $79 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 09 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $4 $0 +12%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $171 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 14 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $13 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $2 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $4 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $25 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.64 · official $38.51 · 369 history records