Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf353…6685 crypto 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3337 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81,560 (+122%) realized +$81,581 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%93W / 85L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day3337.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3337 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 3% -9.8%
≤30d 178 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 178 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 3% -9.8%
all 178 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3337.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 3% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$514) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$81,581
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses93 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)178 / 162
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$414
Trades / day3337.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 81¢ 96¢ $194 $232 +$37 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 16¢ 4¢ $33 $7 −$26 (-79%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $447 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $393 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $328 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $480 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $599 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $274 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $351 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $558 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $377 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $152 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $358 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $604 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $357 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $352 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $295 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $278 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $353 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $268 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $645 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $330 +$30 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $542 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $199 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $580 −$20 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $234 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $145 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $335 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $443 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $614 −$14 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $264 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $351 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $695 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $391 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $409 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $28 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $38 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $37 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $34 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $33 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $29 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.76 · official $267.97 (match) · 3500 history records