Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf350…f3ff tech 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,302 (+17%) realized +$26,768 · open +$534
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%202W / 126L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$8,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 33% +$10,046
tech 31% −$10,202
other 26% +$6,163
world 8% +$1,948
crypto 1% −$28
sports 0% +$213
politics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +77.2% +60.3% 86% 39% +1.9%
≤30d 176 -24.7% -31.8% 36% 20% -39.3%
≤90d 328 +20.7% +9.2% 62% 34% -5.9%
all 328 +20.7% +9.2% 62% 34% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 34% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -1.2% 23% -14.9%
15% -10.8% 16% -23.1%
20% -19.5% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +71% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$185 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$8,140
Realized+$26,768
Unrealized+$534
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses202 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions63
Markets (closed)328 / 388
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$417
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $683 $984 +$302 (+44%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of June? No 33¢ 28¢ $1,050 $900 −$150 (-14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $591 $605 +$14 (+2%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 84¢ 95¢ $336 $380 +$44 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $319 $358 +$38 (+12%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? No 80¢ 88¢ $269 $298 +$29 (+11%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 22 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $231 $273 +$42 (+18%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $116 Week of June 22 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $251 $262 +$11 (+4%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 2026? No 56¢ 64¢ $196 $228 +$31 (+16%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 47¢ 46¢ $237 $228 −$10 (-4%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? No 77¢ 96¢ $179 $223 +$44 (+25%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 2026? No 69¢ 75¢ $172 $187 +$15 (+9%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $114 Week of June 22 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $183 $180 −$3 (-2%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of June? No 34¢ 40¢ $144 $175 +$30 (+21%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $140 $172 +$32 (+23%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $180 $168 −$12 (-7%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $162 $165 +$3 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $103 $162 +$59 (+57%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 2026? No 44¢ 63¢ $105 $151 +$46 (+44%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $140 $125 −$15 (-11%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $120 $121 +$2 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 16¢ 60¢ $32 $120 +$88 (+275%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $142 $120 −$22 (-16%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $177.50 Week of June 22 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 26¢ 56¢ $55 $116 +$61 (+111%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 23 $613 −$18 -3%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $106 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $567 +$30 +5%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $104 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $145 +$17 +12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $758 +$19 +2%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $142 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $486 +$19 +4%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $107.50 Week of June 22 Jun 22 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 22 $201 +$4 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$203 +41%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $365 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $294 +$25 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $87 +$7 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 19 $1,774 −$43 -2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $415? Jun 18 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $134? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $319 +$34 +11%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $143 +$12 +8%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$20 +49%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $181 +$19 +11%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $432 +$20 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 18 $30 +$1,549 +5232%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 18 $996 +$84 +8%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of June? Jun 18 $94 +$24 +26%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $630 +$85 +13%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$30 -76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $265 −$31 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $624 +$82 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $439 +$58 +13%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $405 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $231 +$17 +7%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 16 $4 +$28 +655%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $122 +$12 +10%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $133 +$21 +16%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $129 +$17 +13%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Jun 12 $45 +$26 +57%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? Jun 12 $520 −$293 -56%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $159 +$54 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $209 −$162 -78%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $248 +$5 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $491 +$448 +91%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $240 +$23 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $46 +$5 +12%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 9? Jun 09 $123 +$7 +5%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $42 +$5 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,009 +$10 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in June? Jun 09 $135 +$302 +224%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $211 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 74¢ $85 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 71¢ $25 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 60¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $443 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $177.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 85¢ $117 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $162.50 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 36¢ $86 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 83¢ $131 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 83¢ $21 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 70¢ $142 3h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of June 22 BUY Yes 90¢ $6 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 64¢ $21 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $613 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 47¢ $42 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 62¢ $21 3h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 47¢ $48 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $60 4h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $592 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 81¢ $64 4h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? BUY No 81¢ $162 4h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 4h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 71¢ $47 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,140.08 · official $8,140.08 (match) · 3500 history records