Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf34f…3086 other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$6
politics 23% −$4
sports 22% −$4
crypto 11% −$3
economics 7% −$1
world 5% +$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 48 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 180 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 166
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage171d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $42 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $38 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $296 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $359 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $83 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $39 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $83 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $47 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $42 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $42 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 13d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $39 25d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $39 25d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 38d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 97¢ $41 76d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 98¢ $41 76d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $38 76d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $38 76d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $41 76d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $42 76d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 76d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 77d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 77d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 77d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 77d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $42 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 77d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $43 77d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $43 78d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $45 78d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $45 78d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 78d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 78d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $39 78d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $39 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 633 history records