Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F3 0xf34a…710c sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,486 (+22%) realized +$2,268 · open +$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$971
7 days+$1,925
14 days+$3,156
30 days+$2,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,303
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +82.8% +65.4% 93% 80% +46.2%
≤30d 28 +33.0% +20.3% 64% 57% +19.1%
≤90d 31 +36.2% +23.2% 65% 58% +18.7%
all 53 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 43% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 43% +9.3%
10% -7.9% 43% -1.2%
15% -16.8% 42% -10.7%
20% -24.9% 36% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$106 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized+$2,268
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage134d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 53¢ $140 $270 +$130 (+93%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 81¢ $147 $236 +$88 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $82 +$76 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $617 +$30 +5%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $203 +$93 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $153 +$112 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$298 +291%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $254 +$131 +52%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $234 +$133 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$97 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $255 +$204 +80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$592 +116%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 +$161 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 −$147 -72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $98 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$96 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $407 +$226 +55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $908 −$424 -47%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $385 +$715 +186%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $613 +$1,144 +187%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$170 +56%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $613 −$600 -98%
LoL: Verdant vs The Ruddy Sack - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $152 −$149 -98%
LoL: Verdant vs The Ruddy Sack - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $56 −$55 -98%
LoL: Verdant vs The Ruddy Sack - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $111 −$108 -98%
Game Handicap: VDN (-1.5) vs The Ruddy Sack (+1.5) Jun 05 $82 −$80 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $367 −$361 -98%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Lea May 29 $53 −$16 -30%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark May 24 $454 −$183 -40%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs Dripmen (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen May 05 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: ex-ENCE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playof Apr 08 $200 −$20 -10%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 02 $50 +$71 +143%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Mar 21 $170 −$37 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA fe vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Mar 20 $70 −$30 -43%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs DashSkins (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Mar 20 $31 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs TDK (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Mar 19 $50 −$7 -15%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 19 $23 +$40 +172%
Counter-Strike: hindsight vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 18 $57 +$48 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Game Handicap: PS (-2.5) vs Lupus Esports (+2.5) Mar 18 $371 −$371 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs SU Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Pigeons (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Mar 16 $222 +$67 +30%
Miami Open: Julia Grabher vs Maria Sakkari Mar 16 $50 +$40 +81%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs FN Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 09 $444 −$9 -2%
Counter-Strike: PRIME vs illwill (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Feb 16 $400 −$73 -18%
Jets vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5 Feb 15 $14 −$8 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $158 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $646 11h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $617 11h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 12h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 79¢ $296 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 53¢ $265 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $159 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 79¢ $385 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $367 46h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $300 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $459 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,066 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 55¢ $198 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $53 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $34 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 79¢ $146 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $168 5d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $40 5d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $133 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $69 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $13 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $151 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $135 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $264 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $469 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $60 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $46 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $42 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $133 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.83 · official $505.86 (match) · 204 history records