Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf349…3398 crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,157 (-17%) realized −$1,143 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%107W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$270
14 days−$315
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,096
sports 10% −$300
economics 0% −$25
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +10.3% -0.2% 28% 28% -35.5%
≤30d 98 +20.5% +9.0% 26% 26% -31.4%
≤90d 450 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 23% -30.4%
all 450 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 23% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 23% -30.4%
10% -21.7% 23% -37.0%
15% -29.3% 23% -43.1%
20% -36.2% 22% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,143
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses107 / 343
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)450 / 452
History coverage56d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 26¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$51 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$32 +604%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$34 +330%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$15 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$21 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $28 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $27 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.85 · official $14.85 · 886 history records