Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf346…9738 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$186 (-22%) realized −$168 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$95
culture 17% −$58
politics 11% −$2
sports 9% +$8
crypto 4% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 67% 33% -9.2%
≤30d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 67% 33% -9.2%
≤90d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 67% 33% -9.2%
all 10 -39.7% -45.5% 40% 20% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 20% -49.4%
10% -50.7% 10% -54.2%
15% -55.4% 10% -58.6%
20% -59.8% 10% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage217d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $60 $92 +$32 (+54%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $65 −$14 (-18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $33 +$19 (+139%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-24%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $16 $23 +$7 (+44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $16 +$3 (+27%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 10¢ $68 $9 −$60 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$12 +57%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $53 +$9 +17%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 30 $144 −$58 -41%
Will Mexico win on 2025-11-18? Nov 19 $64 −$62 -97%
Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-18? Nov 19 $25 −$18 -72%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 19 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16? Nov 15 $30 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $21 4d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $68 28d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 77¢ $62 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 66¢ $53 131d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 135d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 171d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 171d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 171d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 171d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 171d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 192d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 192d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 193d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.14 · official $393.14 (match) · 334 history records