Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf346…f495 politics 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$10
politics 27% −$7
sports 14% +$4
crypto 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$9
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 117 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage132d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $302 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $192 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $163 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $358 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $321 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $366 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 13 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 10h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $16 26h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 26h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 41h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 22d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 24d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $154 24d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $154 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 26d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 26d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records