Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F3 0xf346…1b8e sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$800 (-6%) realized −$809 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$423
14 days+$423
30 days−$1,426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.0% +16.7% 55% 55% +8.8%
≤30d 63 -10.0% -18.6% 41% 41% -21.4%
≤90d 64 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 42% -20.8%
all 64 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 42% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 42% -20.8%
10% -25.4% 42% -28.4%
15% -32.6% 41% -35.3%
20% -39.2% 38% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$148 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized−$809
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage38d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner MOUZ 61¢ 61¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 43¢ 44¢ $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 52¢ 44¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 19¢ 39¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $303 +$161 +53%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $92 +$410 +444%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $408 +$419 +103%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $101 +$71 +70%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $304 −$194 -64%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $305 −$155 -51%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $407 −$400 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $203 +$161 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $202 +$85 +42%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $31 +$179 +581%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $355 +$497 +140%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 03 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $202 +$105 +52%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $297 +$157 +53%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $163 −$160 -98%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $213 −$32 -15%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 01 $201 +$56 +28%
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team G - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $58 +$37 +64%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Two Move - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $275 −$272 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $172 −$20 -12%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $117 −$15 -13%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $406 −$400 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $304 +$205 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 +$92 +180%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $202 +$115 +57%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $255 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $254 −$200 -79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $314 +$212 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $65 +$47 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $89 −$21 -24%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $132 −$30 -23%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $202 +$101 +50%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $202 −$29 -14%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $203 +$152 +75%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 19¢ $20 27m
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 52¢ $101 36m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 65¢ $101 41m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $101 42m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 59¢ $202 42m
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 38¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 55¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 38¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 40¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 24¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 20¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 50¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 50¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 65¢ $303 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 25¢ $20 3d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $827 3d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 21¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 23¢ $31 3d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 51¢ $203 3d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 41¢ $94 3d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 52¢ $112 3d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 12¢ $31 3d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 22¢ $29 5d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $253 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 62¢ $101 6d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $172 6d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $384 6d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.58 · official $781.58 (match) · 150 history records