Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf346…8232 crypto 1860 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,086 (-34%) realized −$3,053 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%974W / 1259L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$289
sports 10% +$517
other 9% +$1,457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -72.6% -75.2% 5% 5% +214.8%
≤30d 464 -72.6% -75.2% 5% 5% +214.8%
≤90d 464 -72.6% -75.2% 5% 5% +214.8%
all 2233 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 44% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 44% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 44% -3.1%
15% -38.7% 44% -12.4%
20% -44.7% 43% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +247% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$3,053
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses974 / 1259
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions13
Markets (closed)2233 / 1860
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 2233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $135 $128 −$8 (-6%)
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $54 $31 −$23 (-43%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-16%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - December 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 40m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 40m
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $22 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.87 · official $442.91 · 3500 history records