Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf345…cc9d world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$24
other 12% +$8
politics 3% −$5
sports 2% +$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 29 -3.7% -12.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 87 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage467d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $156 $157 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $158 −$2 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $423 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $195 −$3 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $164 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $186 −$2 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $447 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $123 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $226 −$7 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $8 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $155 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $355 −$23 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $153 +$6 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $14 −$2 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $1,018 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $1,119 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $14 −$7 -50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $1,044 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $173 +$8 +5%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $175 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $125 −$1 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $156 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $156 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $158 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $173 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $173 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $54 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $54 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $104 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $104 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $90 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $146 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $150 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $106 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $106 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $36 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $110 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $59 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $169 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $11 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $9 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $2 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.87 · official $156.87 (match) · 285 history records