Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf340…5cbe politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$8
other 32% −$6
sports 12% −$2
culture 11% −$3
world 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$944) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage80d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 09 $954 −$2 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Apr 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $927 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 15 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $964 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $939 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 29 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $943 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $910 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1,037 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,017 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $724 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $23 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $918 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $970 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $949 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,049 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records