Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf33e…0ab8
sports · 836 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10,427 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,082 · open −$1,340
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,393
Realized−$9,082
Unrealized−$1,340
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses238 / 548
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,814
Open positions50
Markets (closed)786 / 836
History coverage39d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 50 History 786 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,030
7 days−$2,740
14 days−$5,255
30 days−$8,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 64¢ 61¢ $160 $154 −$6 (-4%)
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? Yes 92¢ 52¢ $230 $131 −$99 (-43%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? No 55¢ 41¢ $138 $102 −$35 (-25%)
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 36¢ 31¢ $90 $78 −$12 (-14%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 20¢ $107 $57 −$51 (-47%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $62 $55 −$7 (-11%)
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-7%)
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $57 $49 −$7 (-13%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $55 $49 −$6 (-11%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes 45¢ 18¢ $97 $39 −$58 (-60%)
Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 86¢ 50¢ $65 $38 −$27 (-41%)
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes 51¢ 44¢ $44 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? Yes 46¢ 14¢ $124 $38 −$86 (-70%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $55 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 12¢ $112 $29 −$84 (-74%)
Will Takehiro Tomiyasu be in Japan's Starting 11? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $47 $25 −$22 (-47%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $52 $25 −$28 (-52%)
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $48 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? No 20¢ 10¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $42 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 23¢ 10¢ $46 $21 −$25 (-54%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $29 $20 −$8 (-29%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? No 37¢ 20¢ $37 $20 −$18 (-47%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? No 30¢ 8¢ $75 $19 −$56 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $55 −$4 -8%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Will there be 5+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 +$7 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? Jun 14 $165 −$122 -74%
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 14 $234 −$6 -3%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 14 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Congo DR be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Jun 14 $0 $0 +2%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be 2+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $183 +$1 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $120 −$12 -10%
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 14 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Assan Ouédraogo be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Désiré Doué win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedi Jun 14 $120 −$15 -12%
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $230 −$7 -3%
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 14 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Nikolas Ferreira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election Jun 14 $8 −$6 -73%
Will 9+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $8 −$6 -74%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $198 −$77 -39%
Will Colombia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $205 −$15 -7%
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $168 −$19 -11%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $88 −$24 -27%
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Nathan Ngoy be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative electio Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $55 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 13 $235 −$2 -1%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rally? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$4,148
other 22% −$3,518
politics 5% −$1,560
world 3% −$256
tech 1% −$351
economics 0% −$201
finance 0% −$166
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$186
culture 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 1h
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $29 1h
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 36¢ $90 1h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 35¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 37¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 37¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 36¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 36¢ $43 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 36¢ $2 1h
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $230 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $90 1h
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? SELL No 18¢ $43 1h
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? SELL No 24¢ $3 2h
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? SELL Yes 91¢ $228 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 78¢ $22 2h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $60 2h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? BUY No 23¢ $8 2h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? BUY No 23¢ $0 2h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? BUY No 23¢ $1 2h
Will Congo DR be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Congo DR be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 3h
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $1 3h
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 71¢ $88 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -25.3% -32.5% 19% 7% -27.2%
≤30d 657 -16.0% -24.0% 28% 4% -15.5%
≤90d 786 -13.2% -21.4% 30% 5% -14.6%
all 786 -13.2% -21.4% 30% 5% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 5% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 3% -22.7%
15% -35.8% 2% -30.2%
20% -42.1% 2% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,393.45 · official $1,393.48 (match) · 3500 history records