Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf33d…a537 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10,361 (-34%) realized −$10,121 · open −$240
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,792per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$6,964
world 38% −$2,124
other 11% −$240
finance 3% −$1,033
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 -70.7% -73.5% 8% 8% -62.1%
all 16 -45.3% -50.5% 25% 19% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.5% 19% -47.5%
10% -55.2% 19% -52.5%
15% -59.6% 19% -57.1%
20% -63.5% 19% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,193 vs −$1,241 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$3,122
Realized−$10,121
Unrealized−$240
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1,792
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,362 $3,122 −$240 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5 May 08 $94 −$92 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $6,004 −$2,633 -44%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1,700 +$1,769 +104%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 26 $4,000 −$1,774 -44%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 26 $660 −$660 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 23 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $400 −$400 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 23 $1,210 −$713 -59%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 23 $2,878 −$1,840 -64%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $1,500 +$2,329 +155%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $2,447 −$2,447 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Mar 10 $781 +$35 +4%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $1,000 +$637 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,462 2h
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $94 38d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $712 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $712 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $373 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $640 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $703 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $724 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $5 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $39 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $1,697 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $3 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $34 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $714 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,020 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $306 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $815 41d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,033 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $400 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,700 84d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,000 84d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,000 84d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? SELL Yes 18¢ $497 84d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,039 84d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 74¢ $3,752 93d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No $78 95d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $78 95d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? BUY Yes 44¢ $517 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,121.81 · official $3,121.81 (match) · 67 history records